CPRE Leicestershire thinks that the OAN in the HEDNA may well be inflated. The economic forecast in the HEDNA is exaggerated as is employment. For example the planned growth scenario sees enhanced employments growth of 99,200 (0,7%pa) for 2011 - 2036 relative to the baseline. This significantly exceeds the historical growth rate of 0.4% pa for 1993-2010.
Past trends reflect a period of considerable change and restructuring in the nature of the economy of the county. A key driver has been the replacement of the loss of manufacturing jobs with other employment, such as administration. The nature of manufacturing has also changed so that less employment is required.
Nevertheless it seems reasonable to assume these are relatively benign and optimistic figures.
At the same time the HEDNA seeks to establish an Objectively Assessed Need (OAN) for housing until 2031 (as well as 2036 for local plans which are working to that date.)
The latest 2016 national population projections have been produced (26/10/17). They reduce migration rates, fertility projections and life expectancy improvements, all of which one would expect in due course to reduce local population and household projections.